Daily avg 14.3 units (up 28% from last week). Spike correlates with Summer Flash Sale launch on May 15. Forecast: 18+ units/day through June 20. At current rate, 23 units = 1.6 days of stock.
日均 14.3件（较上周↑28%）。涨幅与5月15日启动的夏季闪购强相关。预测：6月20日前日均18件以上。按当前速度，23件库存仅够1.6天。
| SKU | Warehouse仓库 | On Hand在库 | Daily Avg日均 | Days Left可售天数 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SK-II-230 | Shanghai-1上海1号仓 | 18 | 11.2 | 1.6 |
| SK-II-230 | Guangzhou-3广州3号仓 | 5 | 3.1 | 1.6 |
Best price: Authorized Distributor A at ¥6,840/unit (MOQ 200). Lead time 4 days air freight. 500 units covers 35 days at current rate with campaign buffer.
最优价格：授权经销商A，¥6,840/件（起订量200件），空运4天到货。500件可覆盖35天（含大促缓冲）。
| Carrier承运商 | On-Time准时率 | Days天数 | ¥/kg每kg | Status状态 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SF Express顺丰速运 | 98.2% | 1.8 | ¥12.5 | Best最优 |
| JD Logistics京东物流 | 96.5% | 2.1 | ¥11.0 | Good良好 |
| ZTO Express中通快递 | 61.2% | 5.4 | ¥5.8 | ⚠ Risk风险 |
On-time: 92% (Apr) → 78% (May 1-10) → 61% (May 11-17). 3-week decline while other carriers remain stable.
准时率：92%（4月）→ 78%（5月1-10日）→ 61%（5月11-17日）。连续3周下降，其他承运商均稳定。
#38847 — Diamond "Megan Liu" (LTV ¥92K), SK-II set ¥4,200. Stuck 76h. Birthday gift, deadline May 20.
#38901 — Gold "Jason Park" (LTV ¥45K), ¥2,800 bundle. Stuck 68h. Already complained.
#38847 — 钻石会员"刘梦琪"（LTV ¥9.2万），SK-II套装¥4,200。滞留76h。生日礼物，截止5月20日。
#38901 — 金卡"朴俊浩"（LTV ¥4.5万），¥2,800护肤套装。滞留68h。已投诉。
#38901: ¥2,800 skincare bundle via ZTO. Stuck at Wuhan hub 68h. "Where is my package??" — filed May 16.
#38901：¥2,800护肤套装，中通发货。滞留武汉68h。"我的快递到底在哪？？"——5月16日提交。
#38456: Received May 12. Moisturizer seal broken, ~30% leaked. Photos uploaded. Requested replacement.
#38456：5月12日签收。面霜密封破损，泄漏约30%。已上传照片，要求补发。
Gold member 1.8 years, previously 100% satisfaction. These are his first-ever complaints — two unresolved issues simultaneously = high churn risk. Sentiment score crashed from 92 → 34 in one week.
金卡会员1.8年，此前满意度100%。首次投诉——两个问题同时未解决 = 高流失风险。情绪值一周内从92暴跌至34。
Product: Estée Lauder Advanced Night Repair 50ml
Ordered: May 14 · Price dropped: May 16 (Flash Sale adjustment)
Within 7-day window: Yes (Day 2 of 7)
商品：雅诗兰黛小棕瓶精华 50ml
下单：5月14日 · 降价：5月16日（闪购调价）
7天保价期内：是（第2天/共7天）
Emily Chen — Gold member 2.3y, LTV ¥18,400. Last 90d: 4 orders avg ¥380. Zero complaints.
陈小美 — 金卡会员2.3年，LTV ¥18,400。近90天：4笔订单均单¥380。零投诉。
Auto-refund eligible: drop within 7 days ✓, amount ≤ ¥200 ✓, Gold+ member ✓. All criteria met.
符合自动退款：7天内降价 ✓、金额≤¥200 ✓、金卡以上 ✓。全部满足。
You've approved 5 similar refunds this week — all ≤¥200, Gold+ members, within 7-day window: 本周您已批准5笔同类退款 — 均为≤¥200、金卡以上、7天保价期内：